A derivative-free trust region framework for variational data assimilation

This study develops a hybrid ensemble-variational approach for solving data assimilation problems. The method, called TR-4D-EnKF, is based on a trust region framework and consists of three computational steps. First an ensemble of model runs is propagated forward in time and snapshots of the state are stored. Next, a sequence of basis vectors is built and a lowdimensional representation of the data assimilation system is obtained by projecting the model state onto the space spanned by the ensemble deviations from the mean. Finally, the low-dimensional optimization problem is solved in the reduced-space using a trust region approach; the size of the trust region is updated according to the relative decrease of the reduced order surrogate cost function. The analysis state is projected back onto the full space, and the process is repeated with the current analysis serving as a new background. A heuristic approach based on the trust region size is proposed in order to adjust the background error statistics from one iteration to the next. Experimental simulations are carried out using the Lorenz and the quasi-geostrophic models. The results show that TR-4D-EnKF is an efficient computational approach, and is more accurate than the current state of the art 4D-EnKF implementations such as the POD-4D-EnKF and the Iterative Subspace Minimization methods.